334
FXUS64 KMRX 270537
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
- HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AREA-
WIDE AND MAINLY FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RETURN OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
A QUIET NIGHT SO FAR WITH ONLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
GRADUAL CLEARING AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND
DAYBREAK. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREA-WATERWAYS. A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING AREA-WIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SPC SWO DOES MAINTAIN A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR NE
TN AND SW VA WITH WIND AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SO A MARGINAL SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT. ADDITIONALLY, A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1500+ J/KG OF MLCAPE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
WE'LL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST WILL FEATURE AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF TN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS
ALONG THE EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS AND SW NC. OTHERWISE, LOCATIONS WEST
OF THERE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY PLEASANT AND DRY DAY. SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WILL SEE THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EVENTUALLY CENTERING OVER THE SE CONUS BY
MID-WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL KEEP THE POPS SUPPRESSED, AND THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
NONZERO CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS,
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER, VERY LOW CHANCE FOR ANY FOG IMPACTS. NOT
EXPECTING RAINFALL UNTIL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM IN THE EVENING, BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR CERTAINTY TO
JUSTIFY ANYTHING GREATER THAN PROB30S. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANT FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 70 92 68 / 40 20 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 68 89 66 / 30 50 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 67 89 65 / 40 50 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 65 86 64 / 30 40 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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