067
FXUS64 KMRX 281723
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 117 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RETURN OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS STILL PRESENT,
BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES A FEW LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
WORST OF IT IS EXPECTED NEAR AREA-WATERWAYS. WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 2000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT, BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW OVERALL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY SET TO RAMP UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST WILL FEATURE AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF TN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS
ALONG THE EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS AND SW NC YET AGAIN. MOST OF US WILL
REMAIN DRY. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE SET IN MOTION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTERING OVER THE SE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PLACES US IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE, USHERING IN MID-SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER
WITH THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE NBM POPS REFLECT THIS WITH SUPPRESSED VALUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WILL WILL FEATURE
SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE
100 TO 105 RANGE ACROSS THE VALLEY. AFTERNOON STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES IN PLACE. I SUSPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO EARLY-MID AUGUST WILL PLAY OUT WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET EACH DAY. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE REALLY ISN'T A
SIGNAL FOR A COOLER-THAN-NORMAL STRETCH AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN KIND
OF CYCLES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES MOVES FROM THE SW US TO THE SE
US EVERY ~10 DAYS OR SO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT FOR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN MAINLY NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IT DRIFTING
NEAR AN AIRPORT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 93 72 92 / 0 20 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 91 69 91 / 0 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...99
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