375
FXUS64 KMRX 290648
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES
SEEM PLAUSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THAT BEING SAID, AFTER THIS AFTERNOON, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE SMOKIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
IT'S A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN TN/SOUTHWESTERN VA/SOUTHERN NC.
THE MAJORITY OF THIS EVENING'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM AND WE COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP NEAR
THE REGIONS WATERWAYS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FEATURE THAT'LL KEEP US HOT, HUMID, AND MOSTLY
DRY. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE SHOULD FORM ALONG THE
SMOKIES AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DO A FEW THINGS FOR US. FIRST, WE'LL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN. HIGHS IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S IN SE TN. SECOND,
IT'LL USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS AND THAT'LL COMBINE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HIGHER HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO
105 RANGE EACH DAY. LASTLY, OUTSIDE OF THE SMOKIES IT'LL BE PRETTY
DRY. WHILE THIS RIDGE IS STRONG, IT ISN'T IMMUNE TO THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL TO SUPPORT A STRONGER TROUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT COULD HELP NUDGE THIS RIDGE BACK
TO THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO RETURN.
HOWEVER, THAT'S OVER A WEEK AWAY AND GUIDANCE DOESN'T HANDLE THESE
TYPES OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TOO GOOD IMHO. FOR NOW, SIT BACK AND
ENJOY THE END OF SUMMER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS FOR
THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. HREF PROBS OF MVFR VIS AT TRI ARE LESS THAN
10% FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, THUS, WILL MAINTAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 72 92 71 / 10 0 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 70 91 70 / 10 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 70 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...KRS
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