024
FXUS64 KMRX 030655
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER WHEN
OUTDOORS THIS WEEK!
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A FEW STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND THEN
INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CORE HEATING HOURS BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW ALL THE WAY UP TO CAMPBELL, UNION, KNOX, AND
SEVIER COUNTIES. UPPER RIDGE IS BEARING ITS FULL MIGHT DOWN UPON US
THIS WEEK, SO EVERYONE NEEDS TO THINK COOL THOUGHTS. THURSDAY IS THE
MORE LIKELY OF THE REMAINING TWO DAYS OF THE WEEK TO HIT DAILY
RECORDS, WITH BOTH PEAK HEAT EXPECTED TODAY AND THE RECORDS
THEMSELVES BEING A TOUCH LOWER. YESTERDAY CHATTANOOGA TIED A DAILY
RECORD AND TYS AND TRI STOPPED JUST SHORT. TODAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHING THEIR 21C (NEAR SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM)
PEAKS FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE COMBINATION SINKING WILL
MAXIMIZE THE HEAT.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
09-03 100(1954) 98(2011) 96(2011) 99(2011)
09-04 102(1954) 101(1954) 99(1954) 100(1954)
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AT CHATTANOOGA,
MCGHEE TYSON, AND TRI-CITIES THE LAST COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS DURING
PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THESE VALUES ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN THE LOW 70S THE NBM AND OTHER CONSENSUS AIDS WANT TO PAINT,
WHICH ISN'T SURPRISING GIVEN THE NBM'S HIGH DEWPOINT BIASES.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE HOT TODAY, TOMORROW, SATURDAY, AND THEN NOT
AS HOT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NOT AS HOT BECAUSE WE HAVE A NORTHEASTERN TROUGH HELPING TO BRING A
"COLD" FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY, AND A WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE, BUT SHOULD A STORM GROW TALL
ENOUGH THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURST GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE "COLD" FRONT THE RRFS HAS SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE, BUT STILL ON THE LOW END SIDE FOR COVERAGE AND AGAIN
DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE EXPECTED HAZARD. SUNDAY THE NBM IS THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS WISE AS A COMBINATION OF THE SLIGHTLY LESSER
UPPER HEIGHTS AND WHAT THE GFS AND EURO BOTH DEPICT AS A WEAK
IMPULSE PIVOTS THROUGH OUR REGION, LIKELY HELPING TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING.
LOOKING AHEAD TEMPERATURE WISE, THE GFS/EURO SEEMED TO TRADE DANCE
PARTNERS WHILE THE EPS IS STILL STEADFAST ON A RETURN OF THE RIDGE
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WE'LL SEE. HOPEFULLY WE GET MORE UPPER TROUGH
THAN UPPER RIDGE. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKELY CHATTANOOGA WILL AT
LEAST BE SPORTING A CONTINUED STREAK OF 90+ WEATHER. WATER BREAKS
FOR THOSE WITH FALL SPORTS AND OUTDOORS JOBS REMAINS OF UTMOST
IMPORTANCE FOR HEAT SAFETY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH BRIEF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE AT TRI. FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, LEADING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL
SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 98 74 98 74 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 98 74 98 73 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 96 70 95 69 / 0 0 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANDERSON-CAMPBELL-KNOX-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
SCOTT TN-UNION.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...KRS
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