018
FXUS64 KMRX 041141
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
741 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 734 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER WHEN OUTDOORS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND
THEN INCLUDING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVERHEAD EXTENDING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD SLIGHTLY BY THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT A BIT WEST. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DIP
A BIT SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS PUTS OUR COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACTION ZONE OF STORMS RIDING THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE
THOSE MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OVER OHIO
AND WEST VIRGINIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CAMS CONFIRM THAT AND ALSO THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY
AND MORE SCATTERED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SINCE THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES ARE ON THE FRINGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACTION ZONE, SOME
STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS EVENING. SPC HAS EXTREME
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE TENNESSEE COUNTIES, THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE FAR EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE COUNTIES. THE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE NOT INCLUDED BUT EVEN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HOT WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE 100-104 RANGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITHIN THE ADVISORY
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.
ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE RIDGE
NARROWS TO THE WEST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH
BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, THERE IS ALSO A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA (SPC SLIGHT RISK), CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE, THE EXCEPTION IS CHATTANOOGA AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES SINCE
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAT FAR SOUTH. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER, MAYBE EVEN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF STORMS FORM
EARLIER IN THE DAY WHICH SEEMS LIKE A POSSIBILITY. THE SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE STILL MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
THAT FAR SOUTH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH, NOT SO MUCH NEAR CHATTANOOGA DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE REGION
STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE
EAST. MONDAY WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPS (ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WARM), WITH
CHATTANOOGA LIKELY THE ONLY PLACE TO BREAK 90.
BY MIDWEEK, THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WANDER BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PERHAPS, BRINGING MORE HOT, DRY CONDITIONS.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
09-04 102(1954) 101(1954) 99(1954) 100(1954)
09-05 104(1925) 103(1954) 99(1954) 102(1954)
09-06 103(1925) 101(1954) 100(1954) 102(1954)
09-07 104(1925) 102(1925) 100(1954) 99(1954)
09-08 100(1925) 96(1941) 92(2002) 95(1999)
09-09 102(1925) 100(1925) 95(1954) 97(1954)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
FOGGY CONDITIONS NEAR TRI AND TYS WILL DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
MORNING. ONCE MIXING OCCURS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AROUND, BUT A FAIRLY LOW CHANCE/LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT; CALM WITH FOG CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 99 76 99 74 / 10 0 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 97 74 95 72 / 10 10 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 97 74 96 71 / 20 0 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 94 70 91 67 / 20 10 40 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page