354
FXUS64 KMRX 051500 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1057 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER WHEN OUTDOORS.
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MOST
OF EAST TENNESSEE.
- TODAY, STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
MORE SCATTERED FROM AROUND KNOXVILLE NORTHWARD. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
A MCV MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, NORTHEAST TN, AND
NORTHERN PLATEAU WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER THIS REGION. AIRMASS IS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500 WITH DCAPES OF 900-1200. LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. SPC MENTIONED A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE
RIDGE NARROWS TO THE WEST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
FROM KNOXVILLE NORTHWARD. WITH BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT IN PLACE TODAY,
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA (SPC SLIGHT RISK), CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH. THE REST OF THE REGION IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE. STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED FROM AROUND
KNOXVILLE SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT A MINOR SHORT
WAVE OR TWO MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN FROM KENTUCKY INTO EAST
TENNESSEE. HRRR IS PICKING UP ON AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER MOVING DOWN
FROM KENTUCKY POSSIBLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY (ABOUT 2500 J/KG) BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS, THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. HAIL LESS THAN ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. IT IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN THE FRONTAL TIMING SINCE THE FRONT
IS WEAK BUT I AM THINKING IT WILL BE MORE IN THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FOR ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
OR MCS MOVING DOWN FROM KENTUCKY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE CAMS HAVE A COUPLE OF WAVES OF STORMS
COMING DOWN FROM KENTUCKY ONE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ONE IN THE
EVENING, GENERALLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SOUTH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH, NOT SO MUCH NEAR CHATTANOOGA DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES SUNDAY AS THE REGION STAYS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST.
MONDAY WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPS (ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WARM) WITH HIGHS
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BRINGING HOT, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IT
DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS HOT AS THIS WEEK WAS, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE LOWER 90S FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY OPPOSED
TO THE UPPER 90S FROM THIS PAST WEEK.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
09-05 104(1925) 103(1954) 99(1954) 102(1954)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT WITH NEARBY LAKE FOG POSSIBLE AT TRI LATER
THIS MORNING. AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO SHIFT DOWN FROM THE NORTH. TRI WILL POSSESS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS POSSIBLE.
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING FOR TYS AND CHA.
ACCORDING TO RECENT 00Z DATA, ACTIVITY WANES AFTER 01Z OR SO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 99 74 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 96 72 92 69 / 30 30 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 96 71 91 68 / 50 30 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 91 67 86 66 / 70 40 40 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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