016
FXUS64 KMRX 060631
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
231 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S.
- STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS AND MORE
SCATTERED IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY GET STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT GUSTY
WINDS.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK WITH STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE TENNESEE VALLEY IS BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES. A MINOR WAVE IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EAST OF I-75, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NE
TENNESSEE/SW VIRGINIA. THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE ON THE FRINGE
OF THE SLIGHT SPC RISK FOR TODAY, MEANWHILE, A MARGINAL RISK
EXTENDS INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THUS,
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. ALTHOUGH, NOT SO MUCH NEAR
CHATTANOOGA, PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS MOVING VERY SLOW AT
THE MOMENT AND CURRENTLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CENTERED NEAR OKLAHOMA. MONDAY WILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPS (ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WARM) WITH HIGHS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS BUT IS NOW
CENTERED CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT THERE, BUT NOTHING TOO CLOSE TO THE
TERMINALS TO WARRANT ANY CHANGE LINES. PERHAPS SOME VCSH BEFORE
SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER AT TRI MAY KEEP THE WORST FOG AT A MINIMUM.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO IT OCCURRING AND JUST HOW BAD. POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY FIRE SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DON'T HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE, SO LEFT ANY WORDING PERTAINING TO IT OUT
OF TAF FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 72 91 70 / 10 20 40 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 69 89 67 / 20 0 40 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 68 89 66 / 20 0 40 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 65 85 61 / 30 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
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