042
FXUS64 KMRX 081754
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
154 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT HELPED SPARK SOME SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHERN HALF ON MONDAY WILL BE PUSHED AWAY TO THE NW AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS.
ALOFT, A 500 MB RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION TODAY,
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD,
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CONVECTION ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS KY
THURSDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING OUR KY BORDER COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, ALONG WITH THE
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER JET STREAK, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA IN THE EVENING ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME. THE NEARLY ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
SURFACE FRONT, SO IT WILL LIKELY STALL TO OUR NORTH. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO START OFF WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER
POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRING A DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEY
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS TO A TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
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