866
FXUS64 KMRX 090522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 595 DAM WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PER EARLY
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET IS EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE AN AXIS OF FORCING LEADING TO A RETURN OF SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES BY THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-40 DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED JET WILL DEPART EAST, ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALL WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. PER LATEST RRFS AND NAM12, MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON FRIDAY FOR A LOW POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.
LATEST SOUNDINGS FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG, EFFECTIVE
SHEAR NEAR 20KTS, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.
A TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. WHILE NOT
TOTALLY DRY, A LESSER COVERAGE OF PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI. STEAM FOG
OFF BOONE LAKE IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 69 95 71 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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