931
FXUS64 KMRX 092320
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NORTH OF I-40.
- FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO ELEVATED
PW VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF CHA HITS 90 TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEY WILL TIE THE RECORD FOR
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMP OF 90 OR GREATER. THE CURRENT
RECORD IS 38 DAYS BACK IN 1993.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
NO REAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ADVANCES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. MOST OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE
DRY. THEN, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, NORTH OF I-40, AS THE BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER.
FRONT LIKELY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE STRONG STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE,
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORM
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO ELEVATED PW VALUES OF 2
INCHES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDING BUILDS BACK IN. THIS WILL RESTRICT PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING. BY MID-WEEK, WE
START TO SEE A MORE ZONAL FLOW AGAIN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH. BUT IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN HIS FEATURE AND THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HOPEFULLY THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND WE CAN GET
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF CHA HITS 90
TODAY, IT WILL BE DAY 37 OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90
DEGREES. THE ALL TIME RECORD IS 38 DAYS SET BACK IN 1993. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE 90 DEGREE TEMPS FOR CHA FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THEY ARE LIKELY TO HIT IT TOMORROW TOO, BUT THE
STREAK COULD BE DISRUPTED IF CHA SEES SHOWERS AND STORMS ON EITHER
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT
TRI LATE TONIGHT, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION OF FOG AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 93 71 93 / 0 10 0 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 92 69 92 / 0 10 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 87 66 87 / 0 10 30 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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