528
FXUS64 KMRX 130701
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
- DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED DENSE FOG, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN AFFECTED MOST OF THE
AREA AT SOME POINT YESTERDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE QUITE
BULLISH ON FOG, EVEN THE HRRR, WHICH DOESN'T TYPICALLY SHOW MUCH FOG
IN ADVANCE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOST
CAMS ARE KEEPING THE SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH, ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS IT BRINGS THE FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. NBM STILL HAS NO POPS, AND
WILL KEEP THAT GOING.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT). ALOFT, A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH FORECAST HIGHS AT CHA IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY, THE STREAK OF DAYS REACHING 90+ DEGREES
WILL CONTINUE (NOW AT 40).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WIDESPREAD POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AND EXPECTED TO WORSEN. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG HAVE ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED AT TYS AND TRI WITH THESE IMPACTS STARTING LATER AT
CHA. REDUCTIONS TO LIFR ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES WITH TYS AND TRI
HAVING THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE. AFTER FOG AND LOW CEILINGS,
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH CLOUD
COVER AROUND 5,000 FEET AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 68 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 64 84 62 / 10 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
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