606
FXUS64 KMRX 160502
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
102 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. TAKE PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTDOORS TO
PREVENT HEAT ILLNESSES.
- MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK, BUT THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
ANOTHER HOT JULY, ERR I MEAN SEPTEMBER DAY ON TAP TODAY, WITH
POOR CHATTANOOGA NOTCHING YET ANOTHER 90F DAY, MEANING THE RECORD
STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE 90F DAYS FOR THE CITY CONTINUES. RELIEF FROM
THE HEATWAVE DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL NEXT WEEK. A VERY
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MID-SOUTH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON HEAT TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE TECHNICALLY WE'RE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HEAT OF THIS LEVEL CAN STILL BRING
DANGEROUS EFFECTS TO THOSE WHO ARE EITHER ALREADY VULNERABLE
(WHETHER AGE OR MEDICAL REASONS) OR THOSE WHO HAVE EXTENDED TIMES
OUTDOORS. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER!
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW PUSHES TOWARDS
FLORIDA. BOTH FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT AS NEXT WEEK
BEGINS. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGING, WE
WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TOWARDS MORE MANAGEABLE HEAT
FOR NEXT WEEK. THE RETROGRADE OF THE HIGH WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW
FOR THE DAILY DIURNAL SUMMER STORM PULSE TO BECOME REINVIGORATED
AS SUPPRESSION WEAKENS. AS SUCH, LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO RETURN IN THE PM HOURS AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT TRI. PREVAILING AT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR
WERE MAINTAINED, BUT REDUCTIONS TO LIFR ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FOG AT TYS BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT CHA BUT
NOT ENOUGH FOR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, LEADING TO CLEARING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 93 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 93 70 94 70 / 10 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 66 90 67 / 10 0 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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