512
FXUS64 KMRX 161111
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
711 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 710 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SLIGHT COOLING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK, HOWEVER, INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
A NEAR 600 DAM UPPER HIGH IS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE SE CONUS,
BRINGING RECORD HEAT FOR MID SEPTEMBER. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND,
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SCOOT BACK WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E AND NE, WILL ALSO WEAKEN, LEAVING OUR AREA
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. A SLIGHT OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS OF SW VIRGINIA LATER TODAY. TOMORROW MAY
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO SW VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE.
THE LOWER TO MID (SOME UPPER) 90S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A SLIGHT TURN DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S HEAT INDICES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THE
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK FRIDAY. THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WON'T
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THAT DOESN'T MEAN TO LET YOUR GUARD
DOWN WHEN IT COMES TO TO BEING OUTDOORS, STAYING COOL, AND HYDRATED.
OUR DAYTIME HIGHS YESTERDAY (BEFORE CLIMATE OFFICIALLY RUNS AFTER
THIS DISCUSSION), TIED DAILY RECORDS AT BOTH TRI-CITIES AND
CHATTANOOGA. THAT MAKES CHATTANOOGA'S STREAK OF 90 AND ABOVE AT 43
DAYS AND COUNTING, WITH NO BREAK IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
CHA HAS BEEN BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS, SO MVFR WAS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MORNING. TRI HAS SEEN SOME FOG BUT NOTHING
LESS THAN MVFR, SO A TEMPO WAS INITIATED FOR THE FIRST HOUR.
OTHERWISE, CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT TRI TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL BE A CONSIDERATION FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 93 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 93 70 94 70 / 0 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW
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