616
FXUS64 KMRX 161716 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
116 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SLIGHT COOLING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK, HOWEVER, INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
PUBLISHED A SMALL MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. CAMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT LAST DAY OR SO IN DEPICTING WEAK SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND MAYBE
SOUTHWEST VA/FAR NORTHEASTERN TN. HRRR SOUNDINGS FEATURE A LITTLE
POCKET OF CAPE ABOVE THE MIX LAYER, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER IN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING
STORM VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO GET PAST THE SUPPRESSIVE SINKING
AND MIDLEVEL WARMTH TO BECOME A THUNDERSTORM, SO LIGHTNING REMAINS
NIL. NBM STRUGGLES IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SO I OPTED TO TACK ON A
20% SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU AND A FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS FOR LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
A NEAR 600 DAM UPPER HIGH IS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE SE CONUS,
BRINGING RECORD HEAT FOR MID SEPTEMBER. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND,
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SCOOT BACK WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E AND NE, WILL ALSO WEAKEN, LEAVING OUR AREA
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. A SLIGHT OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS OF SW VIRGINIA LATER TODAY. TOMORROW MAY
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO SW VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE.
THE LOWER TO MID (SOME UPPER) 90S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A SLIGHT TURN DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S HEAT INDICES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THE
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK FRIDAY. THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WON'T
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THAT DOESN'T MEAN TO LET YOUR GUARD
DOWN WHEN IT COMES TO TO BEING OUTDOORS, STAYING COOL, AND HYDRATED.
OUR DAYTIME HIGHS YESTERDAY (BEFORE CLIMATE OFFICIALLY RUNS AFTER
THIS DISCUSSION), TIED DAILY RECORDS AT BOTH TRI-CITIES AND
CHATTANOOGA. THAT MAKES CHATTANOOGA'S STREAK OF 90 AND ABOVE AT 43
DAYS AND COUNTING, WITH NO BREAK IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONITNUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SACTTERED, BUT COULD GO BROKEN FOR A BRIEF TIME.
FOG TONIGHT AT TRI IS UNCERTAIN, WITH MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE
MODELS. LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTEMENTS, BUT
FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR VIS FROM 09-13Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 98 72 98 / 10 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 94 70 94 / 0 20 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 90 67 89 / 0 50 20 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...DGS
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