535
FXUS64 KMRX 201734
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. BUT
RELIEF IS ON THE WAY, WITH A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED MID-WEEK
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
- EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR
TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
CURRENTLY ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WHILE THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BOTH BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY WITH WEAKER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LOWER PWAT
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE HOT DAYS EXPECTED. WE'LL SEE MORE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MORE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LEADING TO MORE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WE COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. WITH
THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF STORMS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MEAN
FLOW INDICATES THE STORMS COULD SIT OVER THE SAME AREA FOR A WHILE
LEADING TO ISOLATED FLOODING.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE WILL FINALLY SEE A LARGE SCALE PATTERN
CHANGE AND USHER IN THE FIRST INKLINGS OF FALL. RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
CANADA AND A TROUGH SETS UP CLOSER TO HOME THAT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
IT'S WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF O THE UNITED STATES FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
STARTING WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 70'S FOR EVERY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST TN
WHERE THEY MAY SQUEAK ACROSS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH A MORE CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVING IN.
LOOKS LIKE WE'LL FINALLY GET TO OPEN THE WINDOWS THIS WEEKEND!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
TRI HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS. ONCE AGAIN FOG IS
EXPECTED AT TRI, BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF THEY GET A STORM THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 95 70 92 / 10 40 50 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 93 69 88 / 10 40 60 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 92 68 87 / 10 40 50 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 88 65 83 / 10 30 60 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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