101
FXUS64 KMRX 221110
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
710 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 706 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES ARE
LOW. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO OCCUR,
BUT AGAIN CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
- TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION AND THE UPPER HIGH TO ITS NORTH
STRENGTHENING OVER THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT, WHICH WAS SITUATED
FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS
EVENING, SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING DIURNALLY
FAVORED DAYTIME HOURS BUT ALSO WITH LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TUESDAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTH, THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD LARGELY BE
RELEGATED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TN VALLEY AND OUR WESTERN NC COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND STORM
MOTIONS VERY SLOW, SO AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT COULD EXIST
VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE THROUGH THAT PERIOD, THOUGH IN GENERAL THE
RISK OF FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME AS WELL.
SPEAKING OF WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN CHANGE REALLY GETS UNDERWAY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK PATTERN,
DIVES EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA, USHERING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
WE'LL STILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH OF I-40. BUT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGHS
TOPPING OUT LARGELY IN THE 70S, EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN TN VALLEY
WHICH MAY STILL MANAGE TO BEST THE 80 DEGREE MARK EACH DAY. PERHAPS
THE MORE IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S
FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY TAPER
OFF AROUND TAF ISSUANCE. A SHORT LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 18-20Z DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED. OPTED FOR PROB30 GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT
IMPACT TO TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WED AM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 68 85 64 / 60 30 70 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 67 81 64 / 50 40 80 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 65 81 63 / 60 30 70 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 63 76 57 / 80 50 60 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...BH
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