381
FXUS64 KMRX 232352
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
752 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 748 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, IN
ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
CURRENTLY, A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERHEAD WITH AN
UPSTREAM JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGHING. THIS HAS PUT THE REGION IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
JET, LEADING TO LARGE-SCALE LIFT. WHEN COMBINED WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES, THIS HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS HAS LIMITED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN
SOME AREAS, BUT UP TO 1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 14,000 FEET OR HIGHER AND RECENT RAIN FOR SOME,
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AS THE MAIN CONCERN. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
TO THE SAME DEGREE AS FLOODING. CAMS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE
LASTS OVERNIGHT, BUT INTENSITY WILL BE LESSENED AS INSTABILITY IS
LOST. BY THURSDAY, TROUGHING WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST,
LEADING TO LESS UPPER SUPPORT. STILL, INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME, A LOW IN THE ATLANTIC WILL BE DEEPENING
AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES OVERHEAD.
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC WILL DEEPEN INTO A NOR'EASTER AS
IT MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, PULLING DOWN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DRY AND MORE FALL-
LIKE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT, WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S AND UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS RISE AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT PLAINS,
LEADING TO A SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN WINDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY NEAR TYS FOR THE NEXT 2 OR SO HOURS, AND THEN SHOULD TAPER.
UNCLEAR IF TRI WILL SEE ANY TS, SO KEPT IT AT SHOWER. CHA HAS A
LINGERING SHOWER NEARBY BUT SHOULD BE DONE VERY SOON. OVERNIGHT
LOW STRATUS WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR AT BEST CONDITIONS,
WITH SLOW LIFTING OF THE STRATUS LAYER TOMORROW. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER. A RETURN TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER WHEN THE STRATUS LAYER
SCATTERS OR LIFTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 80 61 80 / 70 30 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 76 58 75 / 80 40 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 76 57 76 / 80 40 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 70 49 72 / 90 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-WISE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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