254
FXUS64 KMRX 261745
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT A NOTABLE
WARM UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THERE'S REALLY NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NOR'EASTER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE THIS MORNING. THIS BASIC CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN, HOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND SOUTHEAST CONUS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND AN UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER
THE PLAINS.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES LOCALLY, PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED
TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS EXTENDING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOOK LIKELY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT ENE SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE MIX IN EARNEST BY FRIDAY. WHILE THAT'S
PLAUSIBLE, THERE'S ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE TO NOT BUY INTO
RAIN CHANCES THAT FAR OUT JUST YET, PLUS EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THESE
TYPES OF PATTERNS BREAK DOWN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. ALL OF THAT TO
SAY, MAYBE CHECK THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS AND DON'T BANK OF
NEXT WEEKEND BEING A WASHOUT JUST YET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE 18Z
PERIOD, WITH ONE CAVEAT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, AS WELL AS SOME
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL, SUGGESTS THAT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT KTRI TONIGHT. JUST HAVE A TEMPO GROUP IN
THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT GIVEN IT WAS ONLY A 3HR WINDOW WHERE FOG
AND CLOUDS AFFECTED THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE NORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 74 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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