437
FXUS64 KMRX 271121
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 657 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT A NOTABLE
WARM UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. PERHAPS
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND A CLOSED
LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A NOR'EASTER IS OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY
DRIFTING WESTWARD SLOWLY. DRY, SUNNY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S (LOW 80S NEAR CHATTANOOGA).
BY TUESDAY, THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. A
WARMING TREND WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK (90-91 DEGREES NEAR CHATTANOOGA).
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST. A GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA
MAY BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND, IF
THAT OCCURS WE MAY SEE HIGH RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
IT WILL BE A MOSTLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST. OTHER THAN MORNING FOG
AT TRI TO START AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS TO START WILL
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY, THEN LIGHT AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 54 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 46 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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