983
FXUS64 KMRX 271752
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
152 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY, BUT A NOTABLE WARM
UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DOES RAIN RETURN BY FRIDAY, OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY?
DETAILS AREN'T CLEAR AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE CONUS, WITH RIDGING FROM
TEXAS NNE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS, WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SPEAKING OF LOW RH VALUES, THE NBM IS ONCE AGAIN TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS, SO A HEAVY HANDED DOSE OF CONSSHORT
AND HRRR DEWPOINTS WERE MIXED IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS
WELL. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC, AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN,
REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, WITH A NOTABLE WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE'S MIXED REVIEWS ON HOW THE PATTERN
EVOLVES AND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES RETURN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE BASED ON THE INTERACTION OF AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
HURRICANE POLO WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA, BOTH OF WHICH OCCUR ON MONDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THOSE PHASING INTO A CLOSED UPPER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, YIELDING
PROLONGED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LATE FRIDAY OR MAYBE
SATURDAY RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA. TRENDS IN SOME GUIDANCE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR A STRONGER CANADIAN JET, A
QUICKER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING
OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE, AND THUS A QUICKER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN. THAT'S NOT UNIVERSALLY
THE CASE THOUGH, AS SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE AND
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THINGS, STILL PUTTING RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND THERE'S PLENTY OF TIME FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST. FOR RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SAT), WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. I WOULDN'T
BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER TIMING IS CORRECT AND THE FRIDAY
RAIN FORECAST WINDS UP BEING TOO PESSIMISTIC, BUT IT'S ALSO NOT AN
UNREASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT EITHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS USED FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. NO
NOTABLE CHANGES IN AIR MASS OR SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS ARE IN
THE FORECAST. AS SUCH, BELIEVE THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KCHA AND KTYS AND THAT PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR
TONIGHT AND IMPACT KTRI, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANY FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z, WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CATEGORIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 10-15KT AT KTYS AND KCHA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 50 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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