472
FXUS64 KMRX 291835
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
CURRENTLY, RIDGING IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. BY
WEDNESDAY, RIDGING WILL EXPAND IN THE EAST AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE THE
RECENT WARMING TREND WITH MOST PLACES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTH. BY THURSDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPEN WAVE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FURTHER HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST WILL PUSH 500MB
HEIGHTS TO 5,900M OR HIGHER OVER THE REGION, WHICH ARE ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHEN COMBINED WITH BROAD
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THIS WILL MAKE THE CASE FOR FURTHER
TEMPERATURE INCREASES, LIKELY AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR MOST SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS.
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED LOW LIFT TO OUR NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW
FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE INITIAL LOW
WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND REACH THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. THE FLOW, WHILE STILL WEAK, WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES, THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, PERSISTENT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE HELPFUL
FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY OR PERSISTENT RAIN COULD INCREASE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN
QUESTION AGAIN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT TRI WITH MVFR PLUS
IFR TEMPO GROUP MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, A SIMILARLY
QUIET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
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