101
FXUS64 KMRX 301137
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
TOTALS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY AROUND 10 DEGREES.
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH SOUTH AS A DEEP
AND BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY SHOULD
START OUT DRY, BUT CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. DURING THIS
TIME, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS PWS MAX OUT AROUND 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE
NEAR THE MAX PW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BASED ON BNA SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AS SEEN ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS,
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20KTS, AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER THAN
10K FEET, ARE ALL SUPPORTIVE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHER POPS EXTEND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, SEVERAL INCHES
OR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT EVENT TOTAL
AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY.
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON MONDAY AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BACK IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S/50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG SO FAR AT TRI THIS MORNING, BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR IT IS STILL POSSIBLE IT COULD DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL
FROM NEARBY BOONE LAKE BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING. SAME CONCERN
FOR POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AT TRI, BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW (NO FOG). WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST
FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 63 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 60 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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