058
FXUS64 KMRX 301737
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
TOTALS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY AROUND 10 DEGREES.
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH SOUTH AS A DEEP
AND BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY SHOULD
START OUT DRY, BUT CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. DURING THIS
TIME, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS PWS MAX OUT AROUND 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE
NEAR THE MAX PW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BASED ON BNA SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AS SEEN ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS,
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20KTS, AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER THAN
10K FEET, ARE ALL SUPPORTIVE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHER POPS EXTEND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, SEVERAL INCHES
OR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT EVENT TOTAL
AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY.
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON MONDAY AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BACK IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S/50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND 10,000 FEET AGL OR HIGHER.
THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT TRI. AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT BASED ON
TODAY'S MORNING TRENDS. TOMORROW'S CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 63 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 60 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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