737
FXUS64 KMRX 302315
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 713 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTH.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
CURRENTLY, RIDGING IS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY, THE
CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AND OPEN WAVE / SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOCALLY, RIDGING WILL INCREASE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING
ABOVE 5,880M, VALUES TYPICAL IN JULY. THIS MAKES THE CASE FOR
FURTHER SURFACE HEATING AND HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOW
90S IN THE SOUTH. ALSO, AS RECENT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST, INCREASING MOISTURE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, THIS
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT STAYS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL REACH
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, SUGGESTING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE DECREASED, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH, PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, MODELS DIFFER ON THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSION, WHICH WOULD AFFECT HOW
MUCH COOLER OF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
CURRENTLY, RIDGING IS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY, THE
CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AND OPEN WAVE / SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOCALLY, RIDGING WILL INCREASE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING
ABOVE 5,880M, VALUES TYPICAL IN JULY. THIS MAKES THE CASE FOR
FURTHER SURFACE HEATING AND HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOW
90S IN THE SOUTH. ALSO, AS RECENT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST, INCREASING MOISTURE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, THIS
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT STAYS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL REACH
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, SUGGESTING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE DECREASED, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH, PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, MODELS DIFFER ON THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSION, WHICH WOULD AFFECT HOW
MUCH COOLER OF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG CHANCES AT TRI... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG WILL FORM ALONG THE RIVER/LAKE NEAR THE TRI
AIRPORT, BUT WILL IT MAKE IT TO THE RUNWAY IS THE BIG QUESTION. IT
GOT CLOSE THIS MORNING SO HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH BORDERLINE MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...99
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