124
FXUS64 KMRX 020537
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
5,920M 500MB HIGH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST JUST WEST OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE. A CLOSED LOW IS ALSO EJECTING JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO HAVING DEVELOPED. FOR OUR LOCAL AREA, THIS
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED THE DRY AND WARMER TREND SEEN IN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS TO START THE PERIOD. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THE CLOSED
LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING.
INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOLLOWING
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF AND APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET WILL MOVE TO OUR
NORTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL INCREASE OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
LEADING TO A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WITH POOR LAPSE RATES BELOW 5 C/KM AND INSTABILITY OF 250 TO 500
J/KG, AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY, ANOTHER
DOWNSTREAM JET WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY THIS TIME, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES, NEAR MAX
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO 5.5 C/KM. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARBY BUT WITH STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GIVEN THESE
INDICATIONS, HIGHER AREA-WIDE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BASED ON WHAT THE RRFS IS SHOWING, COVERAGE LOOKS
TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY, IN LINE WITH THE UPPER JET STRENGTH.
ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH
PLACES SEE REPEATED RAINFALL.
BY MONDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS, PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING CHANCES IN THE SOUTH EARLY, DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE HIGH IS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. OVERALL, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE 70S, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DROP WELL INTO THE 40S WITH THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. LATEST
HREF DOES SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 10-16Z THIS MORNING WHERE
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS IS AROUND 40 PERCENT AT KCHA. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR MENTIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED A LOW SCT DECK AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE
MORNING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY WILL COME NEAR OR
JUST SHORTLY AFTER 6Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 70 87 70 / 30 20 60 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 68 83 67 / 20 40 70 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 67 81 67 / 30 50 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 64 77 64 / 10 50 80 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS
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