221
FXUS64 KMRX 030559
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 146 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING, WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS
FIRST, THEN SWITCHING TO SOUTHERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EASTWARDS. TONIGHT,
SHOWERS, WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, WILL PROGRESS FROM THE WEST
TO THE EAST, AND BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MAINLY A SOUTHWESTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT THOSE
CLOSEST TO, OR IN, NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN DRY.
TOMORROW, LIKELY TOWARDS NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION OCCUR BETWEEN THE MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
DISSIPATING, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR EAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST NC HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE RAINFALL FROM THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. FINALLY, SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO
SEE STEADIER RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BORDERING NC, AS UPPER JET SUPPORT
HELPS FUEL STRATIFORM RAIN. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE REASONABLE AT
1-2 INCHES, AND I THINK FLOOD RISK REMAINS VERY LOW OVERALL.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN RATES ON SUNDAY, BUT IF THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES,
THEN WE WOULD SEE MORE MODERATE RAIN RATES FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 2" THROUGH THIS WEEKEND EXIST ALONG
THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU (FOR RAIN NOW AND TOMORROW
MORNING PRIMARILY), AND ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
COUNTIES SUCH AS MARION, HAMILTON TO CLAY AND UP TO UNICOI (FOR
RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY PRIMARILY).
AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEK WE WILL ENTER A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN, WITH A STRONG POLAR JET NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. END RESULT,
SHY OF ANY COLD AIR DAM DEVELOPMENTS, WILL BE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S EACH DAY NEXT WEEK FOR HIGHS, 40S/50S
FOR LOWS, AND DRY WEATHER. ALSO KNOWN AS FALL!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVING THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE TO IMPACT TYS/TRI THROUGH
THE MORNING UNTIL AROUND MID-DAY. TRENDS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MORE LIMITED FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES TO HAVE SHOWERS IMPACT CHA SEEM BEST IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HREF PROBABILITIES ALSO HIGHLIGHT A
40-60% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL THREE SITES MID TO LATE
MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 70 79 64 / 60 80 90 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 68 77 62 / 40 90 90 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 67 76 60 / 50 80 90 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 64 72 59 / 70 80 80 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...KRS
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