969
FXUS64 KMRX 040550
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK STARTING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A LOT OF RAIN FELL EARLIER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF KNOX COUNTY AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES, WITH UPWARDS OF 3-4 INCHES IN A NARROW BAND
FROM THIS MORNING'S HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN. A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING NOW AND A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, OR EVEN
A STORM, COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FAR MORE ISOLATED VERSUS THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FROM THIS MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY TOMORROW AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WE SHOULD SEE A REFLOURISHING OF THE RAIN SHIELD
ON SUNDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND AND SOUTH OF I-81. THIS WILL
YIELD AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH PRETTY BROADLY, THOUGH IF UPPER
SUPPORT HELPS, CAMS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NARROW STRIP OF
UP TO 2" OF RAINFALL. IT SEEMS IMPROBABLE THIS WILL FALL ON THIS
MORNING'S SUPER SOAKED AREAS, SO AGAIN FLOOD RISK CONTINUES TO BE
ON THE LOW END. RAIN RATES SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE, EXCEPT IF WE SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY, MUCH LIKE THE LEADING EDGE THIS MORNING
HAD THE HEAVIEST RATES. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE SATURATED
VERTICALLY, YIELDING LOW MLCAPE, I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE STILL TO COME RAIN, DESPITE THE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR.
NEXT WEEK THERE'S BROAD TROUGHING WAY UP NORTH IN CANADA, BROAD
RIDGING OUT IN THE AMERICAN WEST, AND A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN
LOCALLY. NO SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT DEPARTURES SHOULD MEAN PLEASANTLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REIGN SUPREME FOR MUCH, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
WITH HREF PROBABILITIES SUGGESTING A CHANCE FOR RELIEF WOULDN'T
ARRIVE UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO
VCSH IS CARRIED THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. CHA WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 64 82 56 / 80 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 62 79 52 / 70 30 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 59 78 51 / 70 30 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 58 75 47 / 70 40 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...KRS
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