676
FXUS64 KMRX 042309 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
709 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 708 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- REMAINING RAIN TO GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND LASTING MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
RAIN SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES, WITH
LIGHT MIST, SPRINKLES, OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
UNTIL A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONCLUDE THIS BENEFICIAL BOUT OF RAIN.
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTH.
FOR THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK WE'LL BE IN A BENIGN REGIME, WITH THE
STRONGER POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH AND AN UNINTERESTED AND WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
PLEASANTLY WARM, SO DAYTIME AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
80F, OR SLIGHT ABOVE THAT LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
BACK TO THE MID TO LOW 50S WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AND PWAT VALUES BEGINNING RATHER DRY BEFORE MODERATING
CLOSER TO MEDIAN PERCENTILES.
MOST LIKELY THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS BOTH DEPICT A DECENTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
STARTING TO CLUSTER IN THAT DIRECTION. INTERESTINGLY THE EC-AI
ENSEMBLE HAS NOT MOVED IN THIS DIRECTION YET, SO CONFIDENCE CAN ONLY
BE DESCRIBED AS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME RANGE. STILL, THIS SYSTEM
WOULD BEAR WATCHING AS THE MODELS' ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
850 WIND FIELD BOTH WOULD INDICATE ANOTHER SHOT OF HEALTHY RAINFALL
PLUS MAYBE THE FIRST WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THEN SETTLE INTO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WILL CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT AND SCATTER,
AND INCREASE N-NE WINDS TO NEAR 10 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 82 56 83 / 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 80 53 81 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 79 52 79 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 75 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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