620
FXUS64 KMRX 050549
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
149 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
- REMAINING RAIN TO GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND LASTING MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
RAIN SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES, WITH
LIGHT MIST, SPRINKLES, OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
UNTIL A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONCLUDE THIS BENEFICIAL BOUT OF RAIN.
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTH.
FOR THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK WE'LL BE IN A BENIGN REGIME, WITH THE
STRONGER POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH AND AN UNINTERESTED AND WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
PLEASANTLY WARM, SO DAYTIME AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
80F, OR SLIGHT ABOVE THAT LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
BACK TO THE MID TO LOW 50S WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AND PWAT VALUES BEGINNING RATHER DRY BEFORE MODERATING
CLOSER TO MEDIAN PERCENTILES.
MOST LIKELY THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS BOTH DEPICT A DECENTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
STARTING TO CLUSTER IN THAT DIRECTION. INTERESTINGLY THE EC-AI
ENSEMBLE HAS NOT MOVED IN THIS DIRECTION YET, SO CONFIDENCE CAN ONLY
BE DESCRIBED AS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME RANGE. STILL, THIS SYSTEM
WOULD BEAR WATCHING AS THE MODELS' ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
850 WIND FIELD BOTH WOULD INDICATE ANOTHER SHOT OF HEALTHY RAINFALL
PLUS MAYBE THE FIRST WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF BRIEF MVFR CIG OR LIGHT FOG. HAVE INCLUDED SHORT TEMPOS AT
EACH SITE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE IT
OCCURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND NNELY WINDS GENERALLY RANGING 6 TO 12KTS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 56 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 79 52 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page