480
FXUS64 KMRX 061828
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
228 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EACH DAY.
- TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WHICH MAY IMPACT
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (PWS FROM 0.6 THROUGH 0.9 INCHES) AND
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR AREA WATERWAYS ALMOST
EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS
WILL PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC STILL FAVORS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT WITH A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AND PATH. LATEST TROPICAL ADVISORIES INDICATES A NEAR
100 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEPRESSIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LATEST
GEFS TRACKS SUGGEST A TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ALSO, DEPENDING ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND EXPECTED SURFACE WEDGE EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CURRENTLY, THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG
WINDS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
AN AREA OF FEW TO SCT DIURNAL CU HAVE FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED. VFR
THROUGHOUT AT ALL SITES FORECAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 84 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...BH
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