014
FXUS64 KMRX 080551
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING
WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH WINDS OVER THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRODUCING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE IS THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WHICH
IS FORECAST BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING. THIS STORM WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH DUE TO PHASING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH AS
WELL. LATEST TROPICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
SHOWING PATH FORECAST CONVERGING WITH A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW INTO WEST/MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR SATURDAY. THE STORM
MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE CURRENT PATH THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE AS FOLLOWS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING:
1. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY FOR MAINLY THE
PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
LIMIT THE QPF ELSEWHERE.
2. DEVELOPING HIGH WINDS FOR SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST ISAIAS
MOVES NORTH COULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE
WEDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ISAIAS, MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS
LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
3. FOR THE REST OF EAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA, WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE COUNTIES ARE LIKELY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE
CHATTANOOGA AREA COULD SEE GUSTS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH, ESPECIALLY LOOKOUT AND SIGNAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR SATURDAY, INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED AND ELEVATED SO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
FOR SUNDAY, REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. HREF PROBABILITIES
FOR VIS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES RANGES FROM 30 TO 50% IN VICINITY OF
KTRI, THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 48 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KRS
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