908
FXUS64 KMRX 092346
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 743 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
- HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS FOR THIS WEEKEND. RAIN AND WIND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP
UP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY BY DAYBREAK IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WHILE THE LOW OF THE STORM TRACKS THROUGH
MIDDLE TN THE IMPACTS WILL EXPAND FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
BOTTOM LINE: IT'S GOING TO BE A WET AND WINDY WEEKEND FOR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, SO MAKE SURE YOU'RE WEATHER AWARE AND PREPARED!
HERE ARE THE MORE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: SOME TROPICAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE PLATEAU (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN), SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE PLATEAU WILL AID
WITH THE LIFT AND POTENTIAL BANDING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH WINDS POTENTIAL: INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS. WIND
ADVISORY ISSUED ELSEWHERE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY!
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN TN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HI-RES SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE WEDGE
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ISAIAS LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FAR EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A HIGH WIND WARNING GOES INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL HIGH
WINDS. WE DID EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE WASHINGTON AND
RUSSELL COUNTIES IN SW VA. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORY START TIME TO BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT EDT/11PM CDT AS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP QUICKLY.
FOR CHATTANOOGA AREA, THE THREAT OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH HAS DIMINISHED SOME, HOWEVER, GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LOOKOUT AND SIGNAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE REST OF EAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA: SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WIND
ADVISORIES TO ADDRESS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS QUITE LIMITED. INSTABILITY IS LOW AND MAINLY ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANT BE
RULED OUT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AS IT BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL RETURN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILING HEIGHTS AS REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOUNTAIN WIND EVENT WILL
YIELD PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION, BUT GUSTY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE ARE ALSO LIKELY. TRI TENDS TO NOT GO INTO MVFR DURING
MOUNTAIN WIND EVENTS, AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO DID NOT
SUPPORT IT, SO MADE VFR PREVAILING THERE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE MOVING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE VALLEY
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING EVENTUALLY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 72 62 73 / 100 100 90 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 74 64 73 / 70 90 70 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 71 62 71 / 50 90 90 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 68 62 76 / 10 90 60 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-
JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MEIGS-
RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH
SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
RUSSELL-WASHINGTON VA.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEE-
SCOTT VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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