675
FXUS64 KMRX 102346
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 737 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW.
- HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH
ELSEWHERE.
- DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ISAIAS IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT'S CENTERED
OVER AL AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE CENTER WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK
INTO THE VIRGINIA'S TOMORROW. MUCH LIKE A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THE COLDER SEASON, WRAP-AROUND FROM THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS DROPPED MUCH EARLIER THAN FORECAST DUE TO MUCH
LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES AND GENERAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION THUS
FAR. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IMMEDIATELY BORDERING GA AND SW NC.
AREAS THAT MAY POSSIBLY SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN TO
COME WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SW VA AND ALONG UPSLOPE
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
WIND HAS BEEN A COMPLICATING ELEMENT OF THIS STORM. AT LEAST FROM
OBSERVATIONS WE DO HAVE FROM MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, NOTHING HAS COME
CLOSE TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ANY AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THAT
HAZARD. WINDS DIDN'T INCREASE LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
LIKE FORECAST MODELS HAD SHOWN. MOST AREAS HAVE RECORDED GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND UP TO 40 MPH SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING; VERY ISOLATED
GUSTS OVER 40. ACCORDING TO HIGH-RES MODELS, STRONGER GUSTS WILL
MOVE OUT OF MUCH OF THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL CONFINE MORE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING, NE TN AND SW
VA. HIGHER ELEVATION GUSTS PEAK SOMETIME TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH
WIND WARNING CURRENTLY OUT, BECOME REFINED AND/OR CANCELLED
EARLIER THAN 8 AM TOMORROW.
FOLLOWING THE PHASING OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
DEPARTING TO OUR EAST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK-WEEK. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT
FOR US AS WE GET LATER INTO MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH AND POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE MAY IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND, BUT DETERMINISTIC RUNS
DIFFER GREATLY ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VARYING CIGS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TREND
TOWARD MVFR AND EVEN IFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY NE WINDS A BIT
LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF AS WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AT TRI THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. TRI COULD SEE A
BRIEF STINT OF LLWS TONIGHT THAT'LL END BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL
GENERALLY FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AT THE END OF THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 73 59 85 / 90 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 70 61 81 / 80 60 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 70 59 82 / 90 60 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 74 61 76 / 90 90 50 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST
CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-
WEST POLK.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON
VA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BH
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