741
FXUS64 KMRX 110623
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
223 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A FEW REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AGAIN TODAY, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN NOR WIND EXPECTED.
- PIGEON RIVER FORECAST TO CREST IN ACTION STAGE AT NEWPORT THIS
EVENING, LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER MAY FLOOD.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE WORK WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE
IN THE WEEK TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT'S BEEN THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS FINALLY GOING TO PASS ITS CENTRAL AXIS OVERHEAD
TODAY. AS SUCH, SOME WRAPAROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AGAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO, WITH THE SATURATED LOWER THIRD OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.
THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE ANY HIGH WATER COMING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VIA THE RIVERS. THE PIGEON RIVER AT NEWPORT IS FORECAST TO
RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY THIS EVENING THANKS TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS NOT A HELENE REPEAT, THANKFULLY,
BUT STILL CAUTION IS WARRANTED NEAR THE RIVER.
OTHERWISE WE EARN ANOTHER MILD OCTOBER WEEK AGAIN WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE POWERING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S EACH
DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES. LATE WEEK FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS THERE'S GROWING INDICATIONS
OF A DECENT COLD FRONT COMING TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A PEG OR
TWO. AS OF RIGHT NOW NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THERE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CIGS AT CHA ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TYS AND TRI WILL STAY VFR DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THIS WILL CHANGE
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO SW
DIRECTION, ENDING THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS, ALLOWING MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME TO CHA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 59 85 58 / 30 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 61 81 59 / 70 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 59 82 58 / 70 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 61 76 55 / 80 50 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...DGS
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