961
FXUS64 KMRX 120517 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
- A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN NOR WIND EXPECTED.
- DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- NEXT WEEKEND IS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A POTENTIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE CIRCULATION OF WHAT'S LEFT OF ISAIAS IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
WV AND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY MOVING
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS THAT ARE TYPICALLY PRONE TO
UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD LAYS NEAR HUNTSVILLE,
ALONG A LINE FROM NNW TO SSE. EXPECT CLEARING FROM ABOUT SW TO NE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS MAY BE UP
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP THE VALLEY TODAY WILL TRANSLATE AND CONFINE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LIFTS UP FROM THE GULF, KEEPING THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
FOR THE COMING WEEK AHEAD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. 500 MB
HEIGHTS COULD REACH 593 DAM OR SO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHAT
THIS MEANS FOR US IS DRY WEATHER THROUGH APPROXIMATELY THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING EACH DAY. CHATTANOOGA, FOR EXAMPLE,
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REAL CLOSE TO 90 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN
NORMALLY THEY AVERAGE 75 FOR HIGHS IN MID OCTOBER.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST THAT MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME PART OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY, WILL BE OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WHEN A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A MARKED COOL DOWN
WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S NEXT SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH JUST
OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUNDAY MORNING LOWS MAY BRING THE
SEASON'S FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (NE TN, SW VA).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
A SHARP EDGE OF CLOUDS RETREATING TO THE NE IS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF TYS. EXPECT THAT TYS WILL GO SCATTERED AROUND 8-9Z, BUT
CLEARING/COOLING MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME MVFR CIGS
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT TRI, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVVAIL UNTIL
DAYTIME MIXING DEVELOPS AROUND NOON, AT WHICH TIME CLOUD WILL
BECOME SCATTERED. CHA WILL STAY SKC BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
DEVELOPING NEARBY ON SATELLITE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS
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