296
FXUS64 KMRX 121744
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
- UNUSUALLY WARM THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. USE CAUTION IF
ENCOUNTERING FOG.
- WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT TODAY, WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS IN FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
NEAR 81 IN VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LIKEWISE WILL BEGIN THE REBOUND
TO ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE JET
STREAM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND A SUMMER STRENGTH UPPER RIDGE SETS
UP AND DOMINATES OVER THE SOUTHERN US. THE RIDGE'S STRENGTH ALSO
MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO REMAINING ELEVATED AND OUR RECENT RAINFALL, WE
SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT CERTAINLY EXPECT TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG TUESDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
BY, AND THE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL IS VERY LITTLE. HOWEVER, THE
AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT, KNOCKING THE WIDER
REGION FROM ITS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE STANCE BACK INTO A TRUE
TASTE OF FALL FOR MID OCTOBER. SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 60S,
NOW BELOW AVERAGE, AND SUNDAY MORNING HAS 50% (OR HIGHER) CHANCES
FROM MORGAN COUNTY TO HAMBLEN AND NORTH TO BE IN THE TEMPERATURE
RANGE FOR FROST. FOR THE TRI-CITIES, THIS IS RIGHT ON TIME TO
EXPERIENCE THE FIRST BOUT OF TEMPERATURES THIS COLD FOR THE FALL.
SEASONAL PLANTS BEWARE, YOUR TIME OUTDOORS IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END FOR THIS YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TRI HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...MCD
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