388
FXUS64 KMRX 130514 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- UNUSUALLY WARM THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING. USE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING
FOG.
- FROST POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE IS
NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
THURSDAY RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND CALM
WINDS, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. WITH RESIDUAL GROUND
MOISTURE REMAINING IN MANY PLACES, FOG MAY BE WIDESPREAD. GUIDANCE
IS MIXED ON DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ON THURSDAY, LOW RAIN CHANCES START TO
RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR IL/IN. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THIS FRONT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER AS A TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA LAKES
AND RIVERS. THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE TO HAVE VLIFR IN A TEMPO AT TRI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DROPS TYS TO LIFR, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
CONFIDENCE OF FOG IS LOWER AT CHA, SO WILL JUST HAVE MVFR FOR NOW.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 13-14Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...DGS
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