512
FXUS64 KMRX 140518 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FROST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND. CONSIDER BRINGING FROST
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WE START THE PERIOD UNDER A LARGE UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, PROVIDING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN OCCURRED EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING, OR IN SOME CASES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING, DAILY RECORD HIGHS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
10-13 88(1954) 89(1935) 86(1954) 84(2017)
10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954)
10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR NORTH LATE WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OUR NORTHERN
BORDER AND THEN RETREAT NORTH. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CAPE GENERALLY LOOKS VERY LIMITED,
BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAR NORTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN OUT OF CANADA WILL PUSH A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
IF ANY PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND SHALLOW AT
BEST, BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BRING NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE RANGE WHERE FROST MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT FRIDAY NIGHT (PROBABLY TOO MUCH WIND FOR FROST) AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS WELL. AFTER A COOL DAY
SATURDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
FOG OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WE MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR LAST RAINFALL,
BUT EXPECT THAT RIVERS AND LAKES WILL HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FAVORS TRI FOR FOG, WITH LIFR POSSIBLE.
CANNOT RULE OUT FOR AT CHA AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE THERE IS LOWER
AND WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR MVFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 64 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 64 86 66 / 0 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 64 86 63 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 61 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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