878
FXUS64 KMRX 141039 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THROUGH
FOG.
- UNUSUALLY WARM THIS WEEK WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF KNOXVILLE
DURING THE FRIDAY PM HOURS.
- WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE KNOX METRO IN THE VALLEY
AND FOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. CONSIDER
BRINGING FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
HOT FOR OCTOBER TO CONTINUE TODAY THANKS TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE WILL SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VA. IT IS CONCEIVABLE, AS SHOWN IN A FEW HRRR RUNS, THAT
LIGHT RAIN FROM DYING CELLS REACHES THE NORTHERN PLATEAU LIKE SCOTT
COUNTY TN LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
INCONSEQUENTIAL. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE AGAIN NEAR DAILY RECORD HIGHS
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954)
10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)
THERE IS AGAIN VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IS LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA PER
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WITH GUIDANCE DEPICTING VERY MEAGER CAPE PROFILES.
A PHASED UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT A POLAR FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN US FOR FRIDAY. DESPITE RAIN CHANCES BEING QUITE HIGH FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN TN INTO VA, OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
PITIFUL THANKS TO THE SHALLOW VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH BOTH ALONG THE FRONT, AND POST-FRONTAL
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
CHILLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS WORKING BEHIND THE FRONT IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY, THEN, IS MUCH COOLER VERSUS FRIDAY AND
SETS US UP FOR A COOL COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FOR THE TRI-CITIES, THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS RIGHT ON TIME TO EXPERIENCE THE FIRST BOUT OF
TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR FROST. THOSE WITH TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE
PLANTS SHOULD CONSIDER BRINGING THEM IN DEFINITELY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LOCALES. BEST
CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 37F REMAIN IN ELEVATED TERRAIN
AND NORTH OF THE KNOXVILLE METROPOLITAN AREA. TEMPERATURES THEN WILL
SLIGHTLY REBOUND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAINTAIN A BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION STANCE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
AFTER FOG AT TRI LIFTS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR THROUGH THE DAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
TRI, BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 65 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 64 87 65 / 0 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 64 86 62 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...DGS
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