370
FXUS64 KMRX 150401
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1201 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH TODAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A STALLING BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED OVER KENTUCKY AND WEST
TENNESSEE. CURRENTLY, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. CAMS HAVE THIS LINE DISSIPATING BEFORE
OR AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
TODAY, THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TODAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK OR TIE THE
RECORD HIGH TODAY. CHA AND TRI BROKE THEIR RECORD HIGHS YESTERDAY
(WED).
RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)
THURSDAY NIGHT, A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH LIKELY AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH LOW INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S SATURDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY
TUESDAY AS RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT
IMPACTING ANY SITE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WITH BE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 63 84 49 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 65 82 48 / 10 0 30 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 63 82 48 / 10 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 61 80 45 / 10 0 40 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BH
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