215
FXUS64 KMRX 152033
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
433 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 433 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
- RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AREAS, AS A FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST
FROST OF THE SEASON LIKELY FOR THE PLATEAU, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
AND THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENTLY, RIDGING IS CENTERED TO OUR EAST WITH A WEAK LOW AND
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES IN
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY WITH THE RECORDS AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE LISTED BELOW:
RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)
SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN HIGH.
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BUT LIMITED
BASED ON MOISTURE AND FAST TIMING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, POPS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS INTO
THE DAYTIME. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO BELOW 0
CELSIUS SOME MIX WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
OTHERWISE, A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH SUBSIDENCE, LEADING TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. THE FIRST FROST OF THE YEAR IS VERY LIKELY FOR
PLATEAU, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AT A MINIMUM. BY SUNDAY, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED AS
TROUGHING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER COOL MORNING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES PROMOTING A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND 5,000 TO 10,000 FEET
AGL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF TRI BUT NO IMPACT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR SOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 83 50 62 / 0 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 82 49 59 / 0 30 40 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 81 48 59 / 0 10 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 80 45 55 / 0 50 70 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
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