947
FXUS64 KMRX 171711
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
111 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING.
SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND THE FIRST FROST OF
THE SEASON WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT, WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU, SOUTHWEST VA, AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
MORNING. BEFORE EVERYTHING COMES TO AN END, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE MORNING.
TODAY MAY BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM FOR SOME TO GO FROM RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S LATER
TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL DROP TO THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 25 MPH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. SO PREPARE FOR A BREEZY DAY AT
TIMES. TONIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE'VE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE RIPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. FROST IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST TN, AND
SOUTHWEST VA.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FROST
POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
FOLLOWING THE DEEP TROUGH ROLLING OUT. THE REST OF THE WEEK
SYNOPTICALLY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCKING OVER THE CONUS;
TROUGHING OVER THE COASTS AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY RISING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH PRIMARILY VFR
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON
WITH SOME ABOVE 25 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIMITED FOG
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW
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