255
FXUS64 KMRX 271758
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
158 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ALSO BE SOMEWHAT LOW, WITH READINGS IN THE 30S BEING COMMON EACH
AFTERNOON.
- THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY, BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LIKELY 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS, AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDWEST OR
THE OHIO VALLEY DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL SOURCE YOU LOOK AT.
LOCALLY, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFIED AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND WILL KEEP US DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT NBM
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT I WOULD THINK THIS WILL BE REMOVED
IN COMING FORECASTS AS DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE NORM AREA WIDE BOTH
IN A MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND THE AI VERSIONS OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH, H85 WINDS DO BEGIN
TO INCREASE ON SAT AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE. WHILE IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE IT WILL NEED WIND HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT, WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THOSE DOWNSLOPE WIND PRONE AREAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DO APPEAR LIGHT OVERALL. WE'LL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WILL BE GOING WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE,
WHICH MEANS THAT I WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS AT KCHA TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 50 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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