633
FXUS65 KMSO 160855
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
155 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING HEFTY SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS. ICY ROAD POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION
THROUGH MID-MORNING THIS MORNING, AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, 1" OR UNDER
IS EXPECTED. MDT ROAD CONDITIONS IS SHOWING SCATTERED SNOW/ICE,
SO TAKE IT SLOW IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL OVER AREA MOUNTAIN PASSES
THIS MORNING.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CLEARWATER COUNTY OF
IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY,
BRINGING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE VALLEYS.
THEN, SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO AREA MOUNTAIN AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS CURRENTLY HAS AROUND A 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
AT LEAST 12" FOR LOOKOUT PASS AND SURROUNDING TERRAIN ALONG THE ID
BORDER THROUGH MONDAY. THE PASSES FURTHER SOUTH (LOLO AND LOST
TRAIL PASSES) WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS, BUT STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE VALLEYS TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE LOWER VALLEYS OF IDAHO AND
CLEARWATER COUNTIES. SEVERAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS STEADY PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR
CLEARWATER COUNTY AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO
STAND BY FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE UNDER COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO DROP TO AROUND 1000
FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING, SO WHAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL, SHOULD
BE FALLING AS SNOW.
THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND FURTHER EAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OPEN UP THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PLUMES OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO AREA
AS SNOW LEVELS RISE, INSTEAD OF A STABLE ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN
FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
AVIATION
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OF ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH 16/1900Z.
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL ARRIVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGE TOP WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
MONDAY FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER CLARK FORK
REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR EASTERN
LEMHI COUNTY.
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