307
FXUS65 KMSO 281850
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1250 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- YELLOWSTONE LOW TO BRING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- COOL, UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH IDAHO AND ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER THIS WEEKEND, A PATTERN WE CALL
A YELLOWSTONE LOW. THESE ARE MOST COMMON IN THE SPRING, AND ARE A
GOOD SOURCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN STARTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION, WITH SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN SOME TONIGHT. SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, THE SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN THE MOST AND THAT IS
WHEN WE EXPECT THE MOST IMPACT FROM SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
TOWNS AND TRAVEL CORRIDORS AROUND BUTTE AND ANACONDA ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS WEEKEND. HOMESTAKE PASS
AND I-90 EASTWARD OF THERE ARE AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. THESE
AREAS HAVE A 60-75 PERCENT CHANCE OF PICKING UP 2 OR MORE INCHES
OF SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, GEORGETOWN LAKE HAS THE
ELEVATION NECESSARY TO PICK UP A LOT OF SNOW, BUT IT WILL ALSO BE
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND SO WE EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS THERE AS WE DO AROUND ANACONDA AND BUTTE. REMOTE
LOCATIONS IN THE ANACONDA-PINTLAR MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP AROUND A
FOOT OF NEW SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LEMHI COUNTY, IDAHO ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FROM
GILMORE SUMMIT SOUTH. FOR THE REST OF THE COUNTY, LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED, EXCEPT THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH WILL PICK UP 4-6 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING COMMON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA. THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY WILL
BE ONE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEMS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE STORM THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW, 75 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLES FAVOR A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER AROUND APRIL 6TH.
AVIATION
A YELLOWSTONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS IT THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CAUSE FREQUENT SHOWERS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AFFECTING TERMINAL KBTM. OTHER
AREA TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOWFALL IN SHOWERS, BUT IT
ISN'T EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...NONE.
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