933
FXUS65 KMSO 311937
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
137 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG
THE DIVIDE AND IN SOUTHWEST MT
- COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PASS
LEVEL SNOW IMPACT POTENTIAL DURING OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUS
PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION; THE FIRST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
A SECOND PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE FIRST PERIOD (TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY) WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 3000 FEET, MEANING EVEN LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WILL
SEE AN INCH OR TWO (THINK CONDON, SEELEY LAKE, BUTTE) WHILE
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS HOMESTAKE AND MACDONALD
WILL RECEIVE 5 TO 10 INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE.
FOR THE SECOND PERIOD OF TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 2000
FEET ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, MEANING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2, INCLUDING THE FLATHEAD VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. IN FACT, THERE IS A ROUGHLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
VALLEYS IN WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO REACHING NEAR
80 DEGREES.
AVIATION
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
LOWERED CEILINGS AT TERMINAL SITES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
COMMON IN PRECIPITATION EPISODES. THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE. THERE ARE HINTS OF A MID-LEVEL LOW
CONSOLIDATING JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE LOWERED CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL
BE COMMON. KBTM WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO BE AFFECTED,
MAINLY BETWEEN 01/0600Z AND 01/1200Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY
LAKE REGION.
ID...NONE.
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