696
FXUS65 KMSO 012012
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
212 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- COOL AND SHOWERY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WET SNOW POSSIBLE AT
MOUNTAIN PASSES, GLACIER REGION AND FLATHEAD VALLEY THURSDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BRINGING
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA (BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION) AND THE
SEELEY-SWAN VALLEYS. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT, WITH PASSES IN PARTICULAR (MACDONALD AND
HOMESTAKE) BECOMING SLICK AND SNOWCOVERED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, THOUGH
MORESO FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOUNTAINS AND PASSES WILL
LIKELY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EARLY MORNING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CANADA INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE AN AREA OF SNOWFALL
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. SLUSHY WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE EVEN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
(GENERALLY 2500 FEET AND ABOVE) DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. LOCATIONS SUCH AS KALISPELL, WHITEFISH, COLUMBIA FALLS
AND EUREKA HAVE A ROUGHLY 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST
AN INCH OF SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RANGES BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GLACIER REGION, INCLUDING MARIAS PASS.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S BY
MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH MAY BRING A BRIEF COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY
OF FORECAST MODELS REBOUND THE RIDGE BY THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
WRAP-AROUND RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS THIS EVENING, FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH 02/0600Z. KBTM WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF LOWERED CEILING AND VISIBILITY. GIVEN
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION, VALLEY FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. KGPI IS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO SEE LOWERED CEILING
AND VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH KMSO MAY
ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 02/1200Z. SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODIC MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
ID...NONE.
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