217
FXUS65 KMSO 021028
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
428 AM MDT WED APR 2 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS MORNING.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GLACIER REGION AND OTHER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARM AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP.
THE RESIDUAL WRAP-AROUND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO CAPTURE THIS IMPACT. SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARDS WITH TIME AND WILL BE OUT OF
OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS OCCURRED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WE HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
TO COVER THE SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE LOW-HANGING FRUIT FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO
BE IN THE GLACIER REGION WHERE 2 TO 8 INCHES COULD FALL. THE OTHER
AREAS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE WILL BE
TONIGHT. THE START TIME FOR THE LINCOLN COUNTY/KOOTENAI/CABINET
REGION ADVISORY WAS A BIT TRICKY, BUT FELT THAT PROBABILITIES
WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TO CAPTURE SNOW
ON US-93 BETWEEN EUREKA AND WHITEFISH. EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FLATHEAD VALLEY COULD BE SNOWING AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN KALISPELL BY
DAYBREAK ONWARDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW IN THESE AREAS IN THE MORNING, AND THEN ACROSS FLATHEAD LAKE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE GROUND TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD MELT ON THE ROADS. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST, DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS TO END IN THE AFTERNOON UP NORTH, BUT CONTINUE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG TO START, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. AND THIS WILL BEGIN THE VERY PLEASANT WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE FASTER, SO THE CHANCE FOR HIGHS GETTING TO THE 70S HAS BEEN
SQUASHED. THERE'S ONLY A 20 PERCENT FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA VALLEYS ON
MONDAY.
AVIATION
SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICT A NARROW
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS AND WEAKEN BY 02/1700Z OR
LATE THIS MORNING. KBTM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
LOWERED CEILING AND VISIBILITY WITH LIGHT SNOW. LOW STRATUS HAS
FORMED ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF IDAHO. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL
BRING BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03/0300Z OR 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TO THE GLACIER REGION AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...NONE.
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