308
FXUS65 KMSO 021850
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1250 PM MDT WED APR 2 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHWEST MONTANA,
INCLUDING THE FLATHEAD VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON MOUNTAIN PASSES, WHILE VALLEYS WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN
OR A RAIN SNOW MIX.
THE BACKDOOR CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO CROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEN ACROSS FLATHEAD LAKE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE GROUND TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD MELT ON THE ROADS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST, DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO
END IN THE AFTERNOON UP NORTH, BUT CONTINUE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
MONTANA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PERIOD OF WINTER-LIKE TRAVEL TOMORROW MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND WILL
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE QUITE CHILLY DUE
TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE DEGREE
PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS, BREEZY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE MAJORITY
OF FORECAST MODELS (AROUND 80 PERCENT) DO REBUILD THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA INCLUDING KBTM. SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN TO ABOUT 2SM AROUND 03/0000Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
KGPI WILL EXPERIENCE DECREASING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DUE TO
SNOW BY ABOUT 03/1300Z. IMPACTS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO KMSO
BY ABOUT 03/1500Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS.
ID...NONE.
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