330
FXUS65 KMSO 050836
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
236 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAW BACKCOUNTRY CONDITIONS, SLUSHY SOUTHWEST MONTANA PASSES THIS
MORNING, THEN BACK TO SUMMER- LIKE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
- BREEZY THURSDAY (WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH WESTERN MONTANA)
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND, WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR
PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON TODAY, MAINLY FROM US-93 EASTWARD
TO THE DIVIDE AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
ID/MT BORDER. SNOW ABOVE 5500-6000 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE PASSES OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA, TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH FOR CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A COOL DAY IN WESTERN MONTANA WITH VALLEY
HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, MAINLY FOR WESTERN MONTANA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND, PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, PEAKING ON SATURDAY
WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY VALLEYS. IN FACT, THERE IS A 40%
PROBABILITY OF REACHING 90F IN MISSOULA, 50-70% PROBABILITY OF 90F FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. STREAM AND RIVER
FLOWS WILL BUMP UP FURTHER WITH THE ACCELERATED SNOWMELT.
AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON TODAY,
MAINLY FROM US-93 EASTWARD TO THE DIVIDE AS A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE ID/MT BORDER. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING FOR TERMINAL SITES WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EXCEPT FOR LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
TUESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...NONE.
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